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Defaults to depository institutions at the end of the 4th quarter of fiscal year 2007

17.4.2008

The FME has processed figures showing defaults by borrowers of depository institutions at the end of the 4th quarter of fiscal year 2007 and comparable figures for the preceding quarters. In this analysis, default is defined as having amortisation and interest payments in arrears for more than one month. The default figures are total figures, i.e. stock of specific provisions has not been subtracted. This analysis presents the development of these default rates from year-end 2000. The data compiled does not include the subsidiaries of the deposit indstitutions.

The figures show that the ratio of aggregate defaults to loans (default ratio) has decreased by about 0.1% from 0.5% at the end of 3rd quarter 2007 to 0.4% at the end of the 4th quarter 2007. The ratio was 0.5% at the end of 4th quarter 2006. The default ratio now is the lowest figure during the period from year-end 2000. Furthermore, the table presents adjusted default ratios with both one-year and two-year lags, indicating the effects large increases in loans have on these ratios in the succeeding two and three years.  Defaults, using these time-lagged measurements, are 0.6% and 0.9% of loans, which are slightly less figures than as at the end of 3rd quarter 2007. Comparable figures at the end of 4th quarter 2006 were 0.8% and 1.3%. Please note that recent increases in loans may result in increased defaults later. Furthermore attention is drawn to the fact that the depositary institutions participation in the Icelandic housing market which commenced during the second half of the year 2004 may have influenced the development of defaults shown in the figures.
 
The default ratio for industries decreased by about 0.1% or from 0.4% at the end of 3rd quarter 2007 to 0.3% at the end of the 4th quarter 2007. The ratio was 0.5% at the end of 4th quarter 2006.  Default ratio for industries using one-year and two years lags are 0.5% and 0.8% which are slightly less figures than as for the preceding two quarters. Comparable figures at the end of 4th quarter 2006 were 0.7% and 1.2%.

The default ratio for households is 0.7% at the end of the 4th quarter 2007 which is slightly less figure than as at the end of preceding quarters. The ratio was 0.8% at the end of 4th quarter 2006. Default ratios for households using one-year and two-year lags are 0.8% and 1.1% which are slightly less figures than as at the end of 3rd quarter 2007. Comparable figures at the end of 4th quarter 2006 were 1.1% and 1.8%.

Please note that the total figures at the end of the 4th quarter of each fiscal year have been deducted by loans that have conclusively been written off which influences the comparison with the preceding quarters.
 
Defaults to depository institutions at the end of the 4th quarter of fiscal year 2007

For further information contact: Íris Björk Hreinsdóttir, iris@fme.is, tel: 354 525 2700.

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